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NBA
Basketball Gambling - 10 Tips for Making Better Picks
1.
Get to know your NBA team
Study
your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know
their home and road records, and evaluate them objectively.
Pay attention to changes in the quality of a team from
one season to the next as players get older and changes
occur in personnel and coaching staffs. Salary caps
and free agency make it more difficult for teams to
stay at the top for long periods, so major improvement
or decline from season to season is commonplace in professional
sports.
2.
Value betting - find low risk high reward action
Successful
basketball gambling requires getting value on your bets
... basically this means getting better than the "true"
odds on your team. For instance, if your objective prediction
for a game suggests that the Lakers should be receiving
5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a
value betting proposition. In this case, the risk to
reward is very much in your favor, making the Lakers
a strong play.
3.
Bet against public opinion
Certain
teams always have a strong public following. For years,
the Chicago Bulls were onc such team, having captured
the public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value
bets can often be found by betting against these teams
because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the
expected amount of public money ... thus, the underdog
is often listed with better odds or a larger pointspread
than they realistically deserve.
4.
Stay abreast of injuries
Watch
the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the
importance of an injured player and the quality of his
back up. Remember that second-string players are often
highly qualified and are especially motivated when replacing
a starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing
its best player. The public normally overreacts to injuries
so you may find good value in this situation. However,
beware of situations where there is more than one injured
stud or there is an injury to the team's captain or
inspirational leader.
5.
Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes
a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at other
times, may play well above what is indicated by their
overall record - especially in critical games. Determine
how important a game is to a team. If the team has already
clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on
the post-season than the present game. Conversely, a
team facing a must-win situation to make the playoffs
may be highly motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat
earlier in the season may also be very motivated.
6.
Bet with your head, not your heart
Make
an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based
on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's
your favorite without considering the real odds. Be
selective and remember that you will only find value
betting situations in a small number of games. Betting
the entire NBA schedule every week is a risky proposition
at best.
7.
Don't chase your losses
When
you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't
panic and make the common mistake of betting larger
amounts in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead,
examine your handicapping methods and reduce your betting
amounts until you start winning again. Remember - chasing
your losses is the single biggest mistake a gambler
can make. Once you start winning again, increase your
bets slightly, but don't go overboard - unfortunately,
like losing streaks, winning streaks also come to an
end.
8.
Don't bet just for the sake of betting
There
is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there
are sports betting opportunities almost every day of
the year. Don't bet simply for the sake of gambling
- be patient and wait for good value betting opportunites.
9.
Practice smart money management
Good
money management is just as important as picking winners.
Increase your betting amount only when showing an overall
profit and reduce your betting amount when you are losing.
Try to set a maximum percentage of your betting capital
that will be placed on any one bet in order to minimize
your exposure ... many professional handicappers suggest
that no more than five percent of your wagering capital
be at risk on any one bet, no matter how strongly you
feel about the game.
10.
Keep accurate records
Accurate
records of your wagering activity are essential for
increasing your winning percentage. For example, do
you tend to bet your home team or your favorite team
more than you should? What are the current trends -
are more underdogs winning early in the season? By maintaining
records of statistics as well as your betting history
will help you to avoid destructive wagering patterns
and, at the same time will enable you to spot trends
that may give you an edge.
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